■ ADMIRE RAKTI: Japan’s first Caulfield Cup winner, he must emulate Bart Cummings’ great dual Melbourne Cup winner Think Big in 1975 as the last horse to carry 58.5 kilograms to victory. Notably, he wears a ribbon on his tail to notify to the people silly enough to walk behind him to expect something painful to occur at any time as he’s a renowned kicker. Few of his rivals will get close enough to be concerned.
■ CAVALRYMAN: With the Godolphin team but is an English-bred stayer, who is so old that you might remember him in a couple of episodes of It ‘Aint Half Hot Mum. These days he spends his time racing around the world, no doubt regaling a few of the younger ones about the old days when he used to be good enough to win a race like this. Won’t be there for the final charge.
■ FAWKNER: Last year’s Caulfield Cup winner, who unlike his countless international rivals, is about as Aussie as it gets. Or as Aussie as Russell Crowe at least. Has Cups-winning sire Zabeel as his grandsire and four-time Cup winner Lloyd Williams as his owner so the pedigree is sound but there’s something just not right about a Melbourne Cup winner named after a suburb most famous for dead people.
■ RED CADEAUX: An elusive old English gent, who seems only to perform when few expect him to. Been runner-up twice in this race at huge odds, but failed the only other time when fancied, No 9yo has ever won a Melbourne Cup so that tells a clear-thinking person that he has no chance. A slightly less clear-minded person may however point out that, for this horse, no chance is every chance.
■ PROTECTIONIST: He caught the eye when he produced a mighty debut run in this country with 59 kilograms at group 2 level at Caulfield. A German horse, he is trained by Andreas Wohler, who has travelled horses around the world with great success. Only lightly raced and already up to 56.5 kilograms but the spacious Flemington will hold no fears for him. A good one to draw in the sweep.
■ SEA MOON: Might be the slowest “good horse” ever to race in this country. Came to Australia from Europe with a huge reputation and even bigger price tag after great runs in Europe and in the Breeders Cup in the US, but these days would struggle to run out of sight on a dark night. It is difficult to imagine what sort of natural catastrophe it would take for him to be competitive here.
■ SEISMOS: German group 1 winner who won a solid lead-up race in England before finding Caulfield’s turns all a little too much in the Cup two weeks ago. His jockey Craig Newitt pestered the horse’s owners via a series of long-distance calls and texts for the Cup ride until the owners had to choose between taking out an order against him and giving him the ride. He got lucky.
■ JUNOOB: Is an Arabic word meaning “south of” but his chances are anything but. A former imported horse, he has been lapping up the sun for the past two seasons and it is no coincidence, therefore, that he is in the best form of his career. His trainer Chris Waller may win this race many times over the next few years and this horse is probably his best chance to this time.
■ ROYAL DIAMOND: Irish-bred import trained by the former super Irish jockey Johnny Murtagh, who only retired from the saddle in February after an incredible career riding for the likes of racing giants John Oxx, the Aga Khan and Coolmore. Some trainers spend their lives trying to win this race so it would seem unfair for Murtagh to win it after just nine months. Doubt the old-timer can shine here.
■ GATEWOOD: Now this must be one confused horse. He initially came out from England two years ago and won the Geelong Cup before being transferred to Chris Waller’s Sydney stables, where he did not fire a shot in four subsequent runs. Emancipated back to England and suddenly regained his form and his reward for that was transportation back to the colonies.
■ MUTUAL REGARD: Trainer Johnny Murtagh will have to call on all his renowned skill to turn around a jinx in Melbourne. In two Cup rides he has finished out of sight on Caitano in 2001 and the controversial Septimus in 2007. But this horse does boast seven wins over staying trips to 3200 metres, has only missed a place just three times in 17 runs and has Damien Oliver to ride.
■ WHO SHOT THEBARMAN: A Kiwi galloper with a solid record of staying performances and a fine lineage to boot. Is a half-brother to the Derby winner Who Strangled The Gateman and his sisters Who Karate Chopped The Tea Lady and Who Elbowed The Tote Sheila were Oaks winners. Can prove himself the equal of his grandsire, Who Squirrel-Gripped The Bookie if he can win this race.
■ WILLING FOE: Given his stablemate Cavalryman is drawing a pension, this spritely 8yo galloper is clearly the best of Sheikh Mohammed’s chances of once again going agonisingly close to winning the Cup this year. Godolphin has been three times runner-up since first coming for the Cup in 1998 and this horse looks as though he could threaten to win but ultimately just fall short.
■ MY AMBIVALENT: Not at all certain what to make of this Irish-bred mare as she poses so many contradictions. On the one hand, her overseas form is encouraging but then again this race is 800 metres further than she’s ever run before. I’m doubtful, undecided, equivocal and even hesitant and irresolute when appraising her chances, which are mixed, to say the least. Or are they?
■ PRECEDENCE: If prepared by any other trainer, this hardy 9yo would go around at his right odds of about 500-1. But he is not. The man who shares that task with his training partner and grandson James is the 12-time winner Bart Cummings and so Precedence will have his supporters. Bart turns 87 a week after the Cup. His present will not come early.
■ BRAMBLES: His story would be one of the great Cup tales if he was to win. After taking out the Queensland Derby and signalling his intent to aim at the spring Cups, he did a tendon, which in football terms, is much like doing a knee; they rarely come back as good. A New Zealand-bred local, he is an on-pace runner and one who will prove a prickly opponent to take on.
■ MR O’CEIRIN: This horse has done a deal of travelling since his early days in New Zealand as he has raced up and down the eastern seaboard. Qualified for this race by winning last year’s Grafton Cup, which, it is fair to say, is slightly beneath the form of other horses in the field and indeed most of those horses who didn’t make it. Is bold and can race on the speed so might see a bit of him early.
■ AU REVOIR: Creates another moment for the Melbourne Cup as while this Irish-bred horse has the ability to win the race, his presence is most notable as it marks the first appearance in the great race of noted French trainer Andre Fabre. Put his hoof in the waters of Australian racing when got a bit hot in the Moonee Valley Cup when led but he fought on. Cannot farewell his chances.
■ LIDARI: Former French horse but now an Aussie after more than a dozen runs out here for Caulfield trainer Peter Moody. Been thereabouts in group 1 races of late and although he’s never been beyond 2400 metres, he’s an on-pacer and a one-pacer, meaning that he will get close to the lead and do his best not to surrender his position. Class likely to tell against him at the finish.
■ OPINION: Former import who has progressed through his classes to the point where he ran second in the Sydney Cup over this distance earlier this year. At the right age (six) and in the right weight range (53.5 kilograms) for a budding Cup winner but he looked more like a Manangatang Cup hope last Saturday when he just plodded home unplaced at Moonee Valley.
■ ARALDO: Been underrated ever since arriving from Germany more than a year ago but his Metropolitan placing and Caulfield Cup fifth at his past two starts are hard to ignore. Brought here for this specific purpose and in the right hands as only four of these trainers have previously prepared a Cup winner. Araldo’s trainer Mike Moroney did so in great style in 2000 with Kiwi horse Brew.
■ LUCIA VALENTINA: Only began racing in October last year when she won a maiden at Tauranga in New Zealand. Just 12 months on and she ran the fastest final 1000 metres in the Caulfield Cup and was taking ground off the winner Admire Rakti. But away from that incidental stuff, what a great name for a horse. She’ll need to be every bit as brave as she is so named to beat all these.
■ UNCHAIN MY HEART: Her inclusion in the field probably best underlines the task the locals face. Just six months ago, this 8yo mare won the Ramsden Stakes – the only other 3200-metre stakes race at Flemington. But rather than being a resounding credit on her resume, few, if any, think she can get within 100 metres of the winner. She does stay and is brave and will beat a few home.
■ SIGNOFF: Just when it looked as though the internationals would clean-sweep the spring majors along comes this 5yo who clinched an 11th hour Cup berth with his effortless Lexus win yesterday. Raced by 2010 Cup winner Americain’s owner Gerry Ryan, who is also famous for making Jayco caravans and just like those caravans, Signoff is going to be hard to pass on Tuesday.
This story first appeared in The Age
