Toyota may become one of the most heavily subsidised car manufacturers since the birth of Holden in 1948 as the Victorian and federal governments enter desperate negotiations to keep the Japanese company operating in Melbourne.
In the wake of the Ford and Holden announcements on shutting their Australian operations, Toyota stands to become the primary beneficiary of the federal government’s $2 billion Automotive Transformation Scheme (ATS).
The scheme provides $1 billion for car makers and their Australian suppliers through to 2015, and a further $1 billion of funding between 2016 and 2020.
Toyota made 101,000 passenger cars in Australia in 2012 and expects to make 104,000 this year, almost half of all local production.
If it continues to make similar volumes through to 2020, the ATS subsidy equates to $3000 a car.
Toyota, which has cut 450 jobs from its Altona production line in the past year, has received much less government funding than Holden in recent years.
It has received $1.2 billion in state and federal assistance over the past 12 years, compared with $2.17 billion for Holden. Ford received $1.1 billion over the same period.
Toyota said on Wednesday that Holden’s shutdown decision ”will place unprecedented pressure on the supplier network and our ability to build cars in Australia”.
Car industry expert Stephen Longley of accounting firm PPB Advisory – who has overseen the collapse or restructure of more than a dozen parts suppliers over the past decade – said Toyota had ”effectively won gold” by simply being the last car maker standing.
”Let’s just call it the Steven Bradbury effect,” said Mr Longley, a reference to Australia’s Winter Olympics gold medallist. ”Ford and Holden have fallen over, and Toyota has swept past to win gold.”
Prime Minister Tony Abbott and Victorian Premier Denis Napthine have been in discussions with Toyota this week to try to keep the car maker operating at Altona, where it employs 2500.
Mr Abbott told Parliament: ”I certainly want to try to ensure that we keep Toyota in this country, because Toyota, unlike Holden, have got higher volumes of exports.”
Toyota exports about 70 per cent of its Australian production of Camry and Aurion cars.
Mr Abbott highlighted the funds available to Toyota under the ATS scheme. ”There is still $1 billion available in the Coalition’s car assistance plan up until 2015, and about another $1 billion after 2015,” he said.
Industry Minister Ian Macfarlane’s office has stated that money from the ATS would go to ”Toyota and the component industry, providing they accept the plan that is worked out through the consultation process”.
Dr Napthine, who met Mr Abbott in Canberra on Thursday, listed the survival of Toyota as the top discussion point.
”We discussed Toyota’s ambitions for a new Camry model,” he said. ”These will be progressed next week when I have one-on-one discussions with Toyota.
”There have been discussions over weeks and months with Toyota and they would be seeking a partnership with state and federal government … there does need to be a substantial assistance package It’s too early to put on a dollar figure on it.”
The meeting coincided with a Federal Court decision in Melbourne that Toyota contravened the Fair Work Act by attempting to change the conditions of its workplace agreement.
Justice Mordecai Bromberg restrained Toyota from holding a ballot, scheduled for Friday, on the proposed changes.
Toyota Australia chief executive Max Yasuda said he was disappointed with the decision. ”We believe we are within our rights to vary our workplace agreement provided the majority of our employees support the changes through a formal vote,” he said.
Four Toyota shop stewards had taken the matter to the court, arguing the company could not make variations to the deal before it expires in 2015.
The company could still try to alter the agreement but must first seek workers’ approval to remove a clause prohibiting changes.
Toyota has warned its ability to operate in Australia will be at ”serious risk” unless workers vote in favour of the revised workplace agreement, which is part of a broader effort to reduce the cost of each vehicle it makes by $3800.
Dr Napthine urged Toyota workers to ”play their part” in the survival of Toyota in Victoria.
”We need more flexible and competitive operation to our manufacturing industries,” he said.
He said the planned closure of Ford and Holden ”sends a strong message to workers at Toyota”.
One of the world’s leading automotive industry analysts, Korean-based Shin Chung-Kwan of KB Investment & Securities in Seoul, believes Toyota will remain in Australia until 2020.
”I believe Toyota can and will stay,” Mr Shin said. ”Toyota do not need to seek the margin [gains] desperately like GM does, so Toyota does not have as many reasons to transform its global production network.
”GM has been forced to close small-scale plants, such as in Australia, but Toyota doesn’t need to do this.
”Moreover, as GM exits from Down Under, Toyota can expect higher utilisation of the Aussie plant.”
